Embarrassing for the Republicans, but I don’t see a lot of “panicking”.
Like, if you’re an EMT or a soldier, you’ve probably seen all the elevated alarm responses people display when the shit hits the fan. Do the responses discussed in this article even register?
They aren’t “panicked”, they’re annoyed. They’re not panicked because the obvious reality has not changed.
Trump is immune from prosecution for his actions, which will all be construed as being done in his capacity as President, and even if the Democrats put on a show trial, they will fumble deliberately or put some type of petty sanction or fine of him, because they ultimately work in concert with Republicans and take their policy directive signaling from them, and at the very least they have receipts on one another. The rest in the administration, though they might be diminished in their popularity and ability to move about in society without derision and scorn, maybe they’ll get indicted too, but again, nothing will really come of it for the same reasons. They’ll still be rich from insider trading and crypto rug pulls.
They’re not scared.
This is a war with two fronts. The only way to win is to have an army of tens of thousands of progressives/leftists who are willing to be one term politicians in as many districts as possible.
One term. Kamikaze baby.
Right now there are a handful of hopeful prospects but not anywhere near the groundswell that I’m talking about.
You get something like that going, really picking up seats and state offices in big numbers, then they’ll “panic”.
When they start leaving the country, that’s how you’ll know they’re panicking.
Amazing and monumental turnout. Sending love from the UK.
3.5% participation is required for a population to reach a Tipping Point, and start a trend that leads to change. In America, that’s about 12.5 million people. The last No Kings protest was about 5.5 million people, this one was around 7 million, so we’re getting closer.
The thing to remember, because MAGA surely does, is that the 12.5 million doesn’t all have to be out marching. The No Kings protesters represent less than half of their actual numbers. In fact, they probably represent less than 20% of their total. A LOT of sympathizers stayed home, most of them, in fact.
MAGA understands that the protesters are only a small portion of the actual resistance, and they know they are surrounded. It’s time that the rest of the country recognizes that.
3.5% participation is required for a population to reach a Tipping Point, and start a trend that leads to change.
Do you have a source for this? I was recently wondering about specific numbers and would happily read something on the topic.
The Wiki article is a good starting point I think.
Most important to keep in mind for this is that afaik the research was only correlative so there can be any amount of other factors in causative play.
But it’s an intriguing couple of studies nonetheless.
I admit, it almost worked on me. I was a little scared to go, and I left my phone and identifying information at home. I also brought a 360 degree camera in case shit happened, figured I’d have a better chance of getting it on camera.
But instead it was a massive party, just fun people, hilarious signs and a truly pleasant and enjoyable walk through the city. It really helped break some of my cynicism; some, not all.
I can’t wait for the next one.
No kings needs to accelerate their frequency. This needs to move to every night.
Seem to be a lot of people posting this so I’ll just repost what I wrote elsewhere :
The 3.5% theory is extremely questionable. The first paragraph of (the BBC) article is problematic if you know like 3 things about Philippine politics.
I’ve dug deeper into the data and it is very opinionated how it defines “success” and violence/nonviolence.
I’m not a pro-violence guy, i defend liberation struggles, but work to create educational/political/cultural revolution. Also the 3.5% mobilized population would be rad AF in USAmerica.
I haven’t read the whole book the study is based on, though I was working on it for a while. But IMO it misrepresents historical fact to make a nice-sounding abstraction, and I’m not sure how people will react to its failure, which would be based on a faulty premise.
We need to be more focused on what we will do with the power that will come from mobilizing like 12 million Americans rather than hoping some members of the political class notice and decide to fix things. The actual problem is that power is kept out of the hands of workers. The thought of building that power and giving it away would be a catastrophic blow to our movements.
The political system is empowered to fix problems, but not equipped. As far as I can tell, the only people who have ever created or fixed a goddamn thing in all of history have been workers.
No it doesn’t and stop posting this as gospel and read what the people who observed this actually say. For one there is one where 6% of the population was involved and it failed. Another protests are becoming less effective both peaceful and violent. Another other factors are also important besides the 3.5 number. Look up what these guys actually say instead of arriving some magical number.
I’d like to add. You also need them to actually be afraid. If they know a few protests is all it’s ever going to become, they won’t give half a shit. The threat, and the reason the government might start acting differently, is from the implecation that these (I suppose in this case 12.5 million) people are ready to hang the government. If they aren’t ready to do that, fuck all is going to change. As it is right now, it seems 99% of the protesters are pacifists. As in, going to do fuck all either way.
That is the tricky thing about basing predictions on historic trends. IIRC, is was Arab spring in some countries that broke the rule (and that “rule” was calculated based on data from 1900-2006). I’m also curious how Nepal and Madagascar stack up compared to historic trends.
Other aspects of Chenoweths research (such as the importance of “converting” certain factions such as police or military - or at least getting them to be neutral) are important as well but don’t get as much traction as the clickbaity 3.5% number does
ETA: Nepal’s discord had about 100k members, and it’s population is 29 million. So that was well below 3.5%. Like No Kings, Nepals protests were decentralized, which is potentially a factor compared to historic protests which tend to be focused on a single location or march
I’ve studied it quite a bit, and I stand by what I posted. Nothing is guaranteed, but the Tipping Point is a real phenomenon. That said, every situation is different, and it isn’t a Universal Truth, just a guide.
The primary point is that it doesn’t take an enormous wave to effect change. Studies and history have demonstrated that a Tipping Point can POTENTIALLY happen with as little as 3.5%.
But no revolution comes with a guarantee
Sure, but it makes no sense to just focus on the numbers. No threshold will be sufficient for change. And there’s also no numerical requirement for it. Those stats only have meaning the other way around - a successful “revolution” required X amount of people in the past. Matching that number will do nothing on its own
You aren’t understanding that it doesn’t matter. The bigger the crowds, the worse it is for MAGA, and they KNOW it. Assigning a number that can make them panic as it increases is the objective. It’s an enormously powerful psychological tool
Maybe it isn’t accurate, or it’s more nuanced than that, but all that is lost on MAGAs. They are cowardly to their core, so if they think their world ends at 12.5 million people, then they will get more and more frightened as we get closer, and either fight or surrender. Most will surrender, and we can deal decisively with those who try to fight.
We have to keep beating them over the head with the rising number getting closer and closer to the Tipping Point. That will keep them increasingly scared and vulnerable.
There’s definitely been some fallacious “appeals to popularity” from them. Like, someone will say that “I empathize with other human beings”, and they’ll snicker “Oh, buddy. You just outed yourself. The days are coming for people like you.” and the first person will just reply “WTF are you talking about? I don’t care if there are only 2 other people like me in the world, or if you’re threatening me, I’ll still hold to empathy.”
Those conversations worry them. Learning that they’re the minority, especially when the majority is not easily typecast as “illegal immigrants”, scares them.
And making them panic does what, exactly?
Making someone panic is a great way to “encourage” them to make big mistakes. Panicky people don’t make good decisions.
It’s psychological warfare against people who have poor emotional coping skills. Every day that MAGA is unhappy is a good day for the rest of us. It throws them off their game, and causes them to make mistakes at a greater rate than usual, which makes it harder for them to hold their coalition together, and makes it worse for them in the next election.
While you’re not wrong, I believe it works for another reason. Almost nobody forms and acts on a political opinion in complete isolation; most of us follow the herd to a greater or lesser extent. And if we consider “herd followers”, (ie. people whose choice of political action or inaction is primarily motivated by what they see other people around them doing) as a demographic, it would be an overwhelmingly huge demographic, the majority of the population. There’s any number of reasons why people might act this way. Maybe they lack the resources or confidence to form an independent political opinion. Maybe they made a pragmatic choice for the sake of their own personal safety, or that of their children. Maybe something in between.
But the important point is that this demographic is huge, so much so that no political movement could hope to succeed without courting them effectively. How do you get these people to join you? Well, that’s simple, they are herd followers, so you have to be (or appear to be) “the herd”. When you see 7 million people in the streets, the message is clear. That’s the herd. That’s the way the wind is blowing. That’s how you get that demographic on your side, and when you do that, you win.
A good number of sympathizers were too busy working to stay afloat
Crowds make a difference when they are out in numbers on a daily basis, one massive protest every month or so won’t make a bit of a difference.
Protesting every day might be less effective without economic disruption going with it.
That’s just the nature of the news cycle, we’ve had over one mass shooting a day this year and it’s not as much news as 10 years ago when they were much less frequent.
If it’s always happening, it isn’t news.
All of that said, there’s other ways to protest that don’t need to be news. Like out front of ice buildings. When you see ice harassing folks, disrupting them, recording them etc.
Protesting every day might be less effective without economic disruption going with it Ideally there should be a general strike, get the workforce out in force, this administration only cares about the bottom line, once the billionaires start feeling it then maybe. Unfortunately I don’t think this is possible in todays America, for various reasons including size, reliance on work for health reasons, etc etc etc.
There are protests damn near every week… I’ve gone to at least 20 this year
Well, to the outsiders looking in, it looks like these protests are non existent and not effective. Doesn’t seem to be much stopping Trump, with the courts now siding on Trump regarding deploying the national guard. I gotta be honest with you, it looks like your democracy is on life support at the moment.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/20/court-ruling-trump-national-guard-portland
My point is that the courts are not always siding with Trump about the National Guard or really any other issue. He has both wins and losses. And so there’s no need to be an armchair doomer.
Armchair doomer, I like that. I’m not an American, I just have family and friends there, as I write this from a west African nation where I am a foreign worker, we had a supposed coup attempt. I’m looking at Europe vis a vis Russia and things don’t look peachy. I’m originally from Lebanon, and the entire Middle East is fucked outside of the petro bubble that are the Gulf Dictatorship Monarchies. So forgive me my pessimism when the supposed “Leader of the free world” is trying to dismantle the democratic state which will have far reaching effects on the world as a whole.
Shit is fucked in the U.S… and it sounds like elsewhere too. All I was pushing back on is the idea that the Trump regime is untouchable, legally or otherwise. That should give us a sliver of hope and one lever to push on. In fact there are several such levers…
I truly hope more judges grow a pair and actually do their jobs as per the constitution. Agreed he’s not untouchable as made clear with the Kilmar Abrego Garcia fiasco. I’m crossing my fingers for all you normal people!
Trump posting a video dropping bombs from his asshole on the protests shows that he does, in fact, care a lot about the protest so he is doing as ridiculous of a thing as he can to counteract it…
Wait…what? I don’t even want to do a quick search to see if that’s true. I suppose if true, it can’t really be surprising.
Sadly, yes this is true. It’s official feces content from the POTUS.
Personally I found the crown on his head and the fighter jet labeled “King Trump” more objectionable. I’m pretty used to dealing with his shit by now.
I 110% guarantee you the White House is not panicking. He and his little Nazi party of buffoons have zero fears of anyone or anything getting in their way.
They think they’re above the law. And one that is above the law has no fear because he has limitless power to do with as he pleases.
If he thinks he’s above the law then why does he abide by many court rulings?
That should be the point of protests. Reminding them that the government should work for the people, and that they will be held accountable for what they did. Because if you don’t, no one else will
They’re not going to be held accountable. There is no scenario where they do.
Convincing you that they’re untouchable is their game. But they’re just humans like you or I.
But how can you expect to bring about change with this attitude? “There’s no way we can make a republic, there’s no scenario where the king will allow it”
What’s the plan, then?
To stop asking other people what to do. What do you want?
What on earth is that response? You’re taking offense because I wanted to hear your strategy? That’s crazy. You should be glad that someone’s seeking out your perspective.
For example, since you deflected it back to me, I’m happy to share my thoughts.
The left is a long way from posing a real threat to the powers that be. It is poorly organized, poorly armed, and lacks clarity of vision. So long as that’s the case, the left doesn’t have much negotiating power, if push comes to shove, it’d be slaughtered, and there is little choice but to back down because of that. Whatever other approaches are taken, it is important to account for the possibility of enemies using extreme measures, for example, in the event of a general strike, the state might just start killing striking workers until they go back to work. And indeed, they may even force the left’s hand without waiting for something like that.
The best way to avoid the other side using a nuclear option is through deterrence. When the left has a “nuclear option” of it’s own, then there will be reason to come to the table and negotiate with the peaceful side, and tactics such as a general strike can be deployed more effectively and with less risk.
Of course, the logistics of such a “nuclear option” take time to set up, and, God willing, it should only serve to increase negotiating power and shouldn’t develop into a full-fledged conflict - meaning that we need to be realistic about what we can bargain for. Trump being almost 80, may well be dead before we are really in a position to achieve anything, and there will likely be more important priorities at that time than holding him accountable.
In short: buy a gun, join an org, and read and discuss theory.
I am not taking offense at anything, I’m not sure how you read that. But to be fair I also misread your comment, I did not catch a genuine interest in my perspective but more of a “tell me how things can happen”, which I did not give and reflected back not to be an ass, but because I’m not american. Sharing my opinion on what practical steps the american people should take feels vacuous, and would be uneducated/misinformed even in good faith. I’m not on the ground there, so I don’t have a real sense of the situation or power to influence it (aside from arguing on the internet).
I do really appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts. For what it’s worth, I think they’re very lucid and thought-out considerations that I share fully. I am glad that I got to read this comment instead of one more “we just need to reach 3.5%!!!” :)
They are untouchable. They may lose power. In a fantasy scenario, they may even be barred from office. But there is no scenario, even in fantasy, where these rich fucks will spend a single day in prison. The best we can hope for is them dying from old age, or quietly fading away.
Just like Mussolini right?
Mate you’re either astroturfing or brainwashed. This collective thought of “nothing will ever happen” is what’s creating the scenario where nothing ever happens. Don’t you see that? Of course they will not be held accountable, if you don’t hold them accountable. wtf?
I think both are kind of true. They have more power than perhaps any administration in history given how stacked the Supreme Court is and how subservient the entire GOP is to Trump and the billionaire apparatus.
That said, I DO sense a panic of how so many months have gone by and midterms are right around the corner. With Trump’s approval-ratings plummeting to Jimmy Carter levels already and their lack of justifying consolidation of power while Democrats are energized — IF they don’t succeed by next midterms, GOP are going to lose pretty big.
Prop 50 Yes in California is a must as well.
Only an absolute collapse in support for the GOP will affect them. The SCOTUS is going to rule against section 2 of the voting rights act and then southern states are going to jerrymander another 12 seats away from the Dems. That’s not insurmountable, but they will need a national lead of 6% in the popular vote just to break even.
Dude what. Last presidency he got scared during the anti-abortion law protests of May 2019 and installed new fencing around the Whitehouse that are roughly twice as high.
https://apnews.com/united-states-government-f0dae0200dd945dcb868d98b1e8ff378
Then he had additional fencing and concrete barriers installed around the already huge fences during the BLM/George Floyd protests, and when one of those fences was partially pushed down (still leaving a 14 foot fence protecting the Whitehouse), he ran off and hid in a bunker.
Then he spent the next weeks telling everyone he’s very brave and did not go to a bunker. While Whitehouse leakers confirmed he did.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/06/trump-is-literally-building-a-wall-around-the-white-house
He’s repeatedly shown he’s a scared little piss-baby, especially of protesters.
Trump’s first term was so much wilder than people remember. It drives me nuts every day.
It feels like ancient history now.
Bruh those fences weren’t fear, they were a publicity stunt and rile up the right… They know what they are doing and it’s basically a psychological war.
They can just send a manipulated poor person to do their dirty work, including murder, without having anything to fear at all.
Trump is just a puppet to larger organized crime that’s global. America is just being used as a tool in the lawless global game that is above the law.
Thewhite house panicked so hard the President of the united states posted a video of homself with a crown on shitting on the protesters. Think about that for two seconds.
That’s not panicking, that’s laughing and making a joke of the whole thing.
A dictator is always afraid of the people the rule over. Law is not something they fear. It is lawlessness. Protests is the way to show them a glimpse of that.
Lawlessness is their upper hand, but when they realize their victims are willing to die or kill things change. They do have pawns that will die for them though so it’s not so simple.
It’s exactly like mafia and gang life on a larger scale.
Most Americans are not playing the same game as them… Most Americans are taught not to play that game… But when they start things might have hope.
I mean they are above the law at least Trump. He literally cannot be procedures for anything done as an official act. Also whoa going to enforce the law?
People need to accept this.
They’ve seen zero drop in the money they’re pocketing or stealing.
They’re seeing zero ramifications for their actions.
So they’ll keep doing what they’re doing.
The day was not only nonviolent but also historic. The estimated nearly 7 million who showed up across America marked the second-largest one-day protest in U.S. history, surpassed only by a very different type of event, the first Earth Day in 1970. That was roughly 40% largest than the first “No Kings” event in June, and in talking to protesters Saturday it seemed the turnout was only boosted by the right-wing rhetoric, that anti-Trump protesters must be some kind of domestic terrorists.
…
The official White House reaction, as related to one reporter, was “Who cares?” But guess what? They clearly cared, a lot. You could see that in the week leading up to the demonstration, with the increasingly insane rhetoric and warnings about “antifa” — a tiny, unorganized sliver of young rock-throwing radicals who were nowhere in sight Saturday — that aimed to neutralize the reality that millions of everyday Americans are sick of seeing a masked secret police snatch people off the streets.
In a maneuver that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un must have surely applauded, Trump’s Pentagon fired some artillery shells over a closed I-5 in the heart of Southern California’s anti-Trump rally as the protests were taking place — ostensibly to mark the 250th anniversary of the armed forces, but alsoas a reminder of the regime’s military might as Trump weighs invoking the Insurrection Act.
All good, but saying that antifa is a group of rock-throwing radicals is dumb at best and plays into the fascist’s narrative.
yeah I hate this bullshit throwing around antifa like its a particular group. they tried to do the same thing with black lives matter. even funnier that anti-anti-facists want to talk about the people protesting them as being anti-american.
Yeah, what the hell was that? Don’t let the magat fuckheads redefine words anymore than they already have. There is not, nor should there ever be, a stain on being anti-fascist.
And a sign we shouldn’t be fighting for America anymore, we should be fighting for something better.
Keep fighting the good fight America.
The next national protest should proactively disappear all ICE agents.
Make ICE fear putting boots on the ground.
Make people fear joining ICE.
That’s a real start.
Who disagrees with this?
Escalation of violence tends to go in favor of the despotic regime.
Instead of making ICE disappear, make it impossible for them to disappear. Make their identities public, and keep them that way as long as they’re associated with ICE. Then see what the community around them does.
Good for you, America!
The more the better
According to the NYT, it was thousands that turned out ¯_(ツ)_/¯
They stopped estimating crowd sizes because it made Trump look bad
Seven thousand thousand.
Where they just counting like some suburb of some city?
I wish these protests carried any amount of influence with this administration, but it doesn’t.
It’s all just a bunch of ideological masturbation up until the guillotines and gallows start earning some miles.
Can we just stop policing people’s acts of resistance? At this point I’m more upset at the people doing absolutely nothing other than maybe post stuff online.
I find it useful. My block list has grown massively. Its a good litmus test for myself on peoples whos opinions are not for me.
Do what you need to protect your energy, it is in short supply.
Did they write you a ticket or something? Pretty sure they are trying to participate in a conversation. If you don’t like it, don’t participate. There are plenty of other comments to reply to.
When you say that if I don’t like it I shouldn’t participate in the conversation it makes me think you’re against negative opinions. But that can’t be the case because you’re defending someone expressing a negative opinion about someone else’s protest. This makes me think there is a double standard at play here.
Touché
I love your screen name I’m watching better call Saul for the first time
Fuck yea brother/sister/whatever
Enjoy! It’s an amazing show
The people that oppose this administration don’t want anarchy and guillotines though. They want integrity, law, order, justice, etc. The teeth of the anti-MAGA movement will have to come through at least semi-legitimate means, i.e., I think it will have to come through the authority of state governments.
And we see state governments become increasingly aggressive against this administration. These marches embolden the mayors and governors that oppose MAGA; they say that the people are with them.
The important part is that the protests are carrying weight with other people who care. The protests have been getting bigger and bigger, and when someone who cares about the cause but doesn’t show up sees this it gives them more imperative to show up too next time. The larger the protests get, the more likely that it will lead to a general strike, which is what will make a very big difference. Once the billionaires and centimillionaires genuinely feel like their profits are being threatened, they’ll pull the administration’s strings.
Please, start the rolling out of the first guillotine and gallows. Fire the opening salvo. If you are going to shit on people doing something you consider to not be enough, step up and lead a stronger resistance rather than standing by and bitching that someone should do something.
Those people did more than you this weekend. I’m sorry that trying to inspire change amounts to masturbation for you.
When you instigate violent change with a purely positive outcome and no ground-swell behind you, we’ll make you a statue. Until then, these protests will continue.
I won’t assume anything on your part, but this weekend was my third No King’s this year.
I stand by my statement.
LOL “it’s all ideological masturbation and I’ve done it 3 times in 10 months, therefore I’m better than you!!!”
stop trying to use such big words to try to hide your hypocrisy.
I do agree to a point, most of the attendees of these protests are overwhelmingly neoliberals who believe we can just vote this all away, but to be honest at this point it’s not about the ideologies at play. it’s about ensuring the crowds are big enough so all the people who feel like they’re going insane and watching the world dissolve around them know that they’re not alone.
policing ideologies to say “you’re not pure enough in thought to aid our cause” is extremely counterproductive, but I assume you already know that (and if the only thing you’ve done in the past 10 months is attend these protests that you yourself think are bullshit, I’m going to assume you don’t care either).
“It’s all just ideological masturbation, and boy is my right arm tired”
Do not split
