I think it’ll keep on running most of the world’s servers and embedded devices.
People who think desktop Linux is dead because of spicy OS level age declaration laws that only apply in Brazil and a fraction of the US clearly weren’t around when SCO was trying to sue Linux into oblivion and it shows.
It will last well into the 24th century
i don’t know, i just noticed my volume control applet pavucontrol switched to GTK 4 when i updated to debian 13 recently and now it uses more resources than your typical shitty electron app (a volume slider!) and won’t respect my system theme.
this has been the trend for a lot of software on linux, both GTK and to an extent Qt with stuff like kirigami and i’m liking my overall experience with desktop linux a lot less than i used to because of it.
I doubt it will over take Microslop offerings anytime soon, but I also think the rise of the Linux desktop has only just started. I think it will come from non-US countries where government departments make the switch. People start getting comfortable using it at work, which helps build confidence in the alternatives to Microslop shit. Also Valve still pushing hard in the gaming space. I think 10% to 15% market share in 5 years is possible. I doubt it’ll go beyond 20% without some fundamental changes, like laws forcing hardware OEMs to support Linux equally as windows and Mac, and better DRM support.
Linux runs the entire internet, a good part of corporate-level servers and it dominates the supercomputing space, you can’t get more mainstream than that.
As for desktop use, most people around the world don’t know what an operating system is, some even believe the browser IS the internet.
With such tech-illiteracy there’s no way Linux can be widely adopted, because no opensource project can beat Microsoft commercial power in “convincing” PC vendors to offer it preinstalled, yes a few do, but they’re very scarce compared to those offering Windows, some even claim you will break the warranty if you install something different than what comes preinstalled (Windows), such a claim is illegal in many countries but some people don’t know any better.
If you don’t know what an OS is, you have no reason to change, unless you’re lucky and have a friend or family member doing the work for you, but you can’t rely on that for the entire world.
Unfortunately, I don’t see Linux ever gaining widespread adoption. Not for general desktop use.
In order for that to happen, Linux would have to gain enough market share to actually be a threat to Microsoft’s business, and when that happens, Microsoft is going to respond one of two ways: actually making their products more appealing, and regain their lost share, or (far more likely) REALLY ramp up their efforts to suppress Linux’s growth. And I don’t think Linux has the strength to withstand the full weight of Microsoft’s legal and financial power.
More popular. More users. Higher percentage of desktop/laptop PC users
Flatpak permissions handled in a very easy to use way. No silent failure. No need to go to flatseal and users understand why something didn’t work how they expected and what they need to do to fix it
Growing Linux userbase eventually results in great day one support for new products from Qualcomm, ARM mali GPUs, PowerVR, etc. They’ll want to be able to compete year after year with Intel and AMD someday
Someday native Linux games rather than WINE/Proton will become the norm
Popular media software categories continue seeing open source software gain mainstream/professional viability. Talking like Blender, Godot, Krita today. Someday stuff like Kdenlive, Scribus, Inkscape, Ardour, GIMP, Darktable, etc will breach some line of good enough functionality, interface design. Someday the user base will grow enough and enough will make it into industry with their experience and opinions
Someday more normal Linux phone OS’s like PostmarketOS will become a solid piece of the mobile pie. Like ~5%. Like how desktop Linux is today. Good usability but still working up to streamlined. That’ll be way better than today. In what I imagine would be well over a decade when a Linux phone is as popular as desktop Linux is today, it’ll actually be pretty easy to use like desktop Linux is today
I see everything through the lens of the difference in user experience and mainstream penetration of 2010 compared to today. Like Kdenlive of 2010 compared to today. 2010 Blender vs today’s Blender. 2010 OpenOffice compared to 2026 Libreoffice. Gaming with WINE in 2010 to today with Proton/WINE/Steam. Unity/KDE/GNOME/etc of 2010 compared to today.
Brighter than ever, thanks to Steam Deck and Microsoft’s general idiocy.
Linux would look great even if Microsoft didn’t help, but oh my god, does Microsoft help.
Just `man future` .
Seriously, RTFM.
/s jk, this comment brought to you by parody.
In future there will be a “next generation” Linux,
not microkernel, but also not so monolithic.
More modular subsystems, drivers will be easier to write.
Native sandboxing.
Deprecation of classic POSIX permissions, file ACL by default.
Rewritten network userspace tools,
everything could be declared in one file (like in the network equipment).
Yet another desktop server.
Desktop will respond near real-time.
Better audio experience, low latency by design, no more xruns.And more…
Depends where hardware will go. Like another architecture?Wow. Every word of that is frightening.
So what your saying is 40 years of bike shedding. The more things change the more they stay the same
How could the subsystems be more modular?
My understanding is almost everything in the kernel is modular outside of the schedular
Bad.
Linux will become the new compromised OS
not far removed from Android,
while GNU Hurd will become the new Linux.[edit]
Go ahead and vote me down!
It doesn’t change the way Ubuntu and Systemd have operated.year of the bsd desktop!
I feel like this comment was a sarcastic joke and people didn’t pick it up.^^ Especially after the Hurd line, this has to be a joke.
No, this is a response to the mass adoption of systemd by Linux and the Age Verification Law.
It’s GNU philosophy or owning a compromised OS.
But Hurd is too far behind and will probably never be a real alternative to Linux. Also the Linux Kernel is not what adopts the Age Verification, its the distribution. Therefore instead changing the Kernel, they just need to change on the distribution what they do not like. Or create the same distribution with Linux, they would create with GNU Hurd.
Time-limited.
The recent changes to how the digital world operates are not conducive to open operating systems and I imagine this trend will accelerate.
THE FUTURE IS NOW!
, old man.
Through a monitor… probably customizable Vr based DE’s or something if I’m being real
Bright. As it continues to grow, and MS gets more terrible I think desktop share will always increase.
I seriously worry about what happens when Linus decides to end his involvement though. I don’t keep up with the happens of the kernel devs but the thought of a split, takeover or power vacuum is a concern for me. Hopefully someone can assure me.
My exact concern too. Don’t see it as an imminent problem, but would like some sort of succession plan or even to develop some sort of framework to ensure the kernel endures after Linus stops being involved.
There is a continuity process at least https://github.com/torvalds/linux/commit/102606402f4f5943266160e263c450fdfe4dd981 Although it is mainly, here is the process to figure out the plan.
What amazes me is, that a formal official plan (this) is just done recently a few months ago. How was there no official plan before? I don’t understand…
Have you got a will?
Estimated 50% of adults don’t. There’s always a more pleasant task on the to-do list to be getting on with.WTF we are talking about Linux, the biggest and most important piece of software. What are you even talking about will and adults? Sorry if this was meant to be a joke. But having a plan like this is crucial important.
The point, is that people don’t like thinking about this subject, as evidenced by the fact that half of people don’t put plans in place even when it’s something as comparatively simple as a will unless they get more imminent prior warning. This is not a Linux kernel specific issue, Bram and vim being an obvious example. Something as potentially complicated as the Linux kernel succession? I can see why it wouldn’t be a subject the community was keen to tackle.
