Musk Doubles Down on Creating New Party After Poll Says Nearly Half of Americans Would Support It: 'Encouraging'
www.latintimes.com
About 40% of voters said they are likely to support a new political party proposed by Elon Musk, according to fresh polling from Quantus Insights.

According to a new poll, 57% of male Republicans say they are likely to support Elon Musk’s “America Party”

Almost half of voters said they are likely to support a new political party proposed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, according to fresh polling.

A Quantus Insights survey released Wednesday found that 40% of voters said they would be likely to back Musk’s “America Party,” which aims to serve voters disillusioned with both Republicans and Democrats. Musk shared the poll’s results on X, calling the results “Encouraging.”

Musk first pitched a new political party in early June after he clashed with Donald Trump over the GOP’s multi-trillion-dollar tax and spending bill.

  • PyroNeurosis@lemmy.blahaj.zoneEnglish
    1·
    23 hours ago

    That would only hurt the Democratic Party if it split at approximately the same ratio as the Republican Party. If half of Republicans split while only a tenth of Democrats split, the results favor Democrats majorly.

    That said, we don’t have anywhere near enough data.

    • sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
      4·
      22 hours ago

      My guess is 30 to 40 % Reps leave, 5 to 15 % Dems leave, and a whole bunch of ‘independents’ join as well, various libertarians and crypto/techbro type people.

      EDIT:

      Yay, I don’t have to do any too much math, they actually did most of the math.

      Apologies for shitty cell phone image, here’s the whole poll (3rd link in the article, by the way):

      https://drive.google.com/file/d/1R4pZVo0ZnrQyElZQzdNtt7CQ1zwTypuS/view

      …

      So, ballparking a 50/50 male female split:

      Likely to Join Elon’s Party:

      Republicans

      Very likely: 23 + 14 / 2 = 18.5%

      Somewhat likely: 34 + 29 / 2 = 31.5%

      Not likely: 31 + 30 / 2 = 30.5%

      Independents

      Very likely: 18 + 11 / 2 = 14.5%

      Somewhat likely: 29 + 26 / 2 = 27.5%

      Not likely: 35 + 36 / 2 = 15.5%

      Democrats

      Very likely: 7 + 5 / 2 = 6%

      Somewhat likely: 15 + 16 / 2 = 15.5%

      Not likely: 54 + 48 / 2 = 51%

      …

      So, if you say half of the 'somewhat likely’s actually go for it, then you get this:

      Republicans who join Elon Party: 34.25%

      Independents who join Elon Party: 28.25%

      Democrats who join Elon Party: 13.75%

      …

      So yep, my ballpark guess was indeed in the correct ballpark.

      …

      Worth mentioning:

      There are more Dem voters, than Republicans.

      But there are also more independents than either.

      Roughly 32% Reps, 33% Dems, 35% Indp.

      https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/the-partisanship-and-ideology-of-american-voters/

      So, throw that in with those previous calcs, and you end up with:

      Reps: ~21%

      Dems: ~28.5%

      Elons: ~25.5%

      Indps: ~25%

      or, normalized to remove remaining Indps:

      Reps: 28%, Dems: 38%, Elons: 34%

      So… theoretically, the Dems are still the largest, Elon is now second behind them, and the Reps are now a third party, less popular than having no solid political affiliation.

      … if this actually happened, which it could, Elon has enough money to single handedly start a party, though he’d have to find some actually competent people to… do anything other than spend money…

      I think you end up with a good number of corpo Dems leaving the Dems, so the Dems now have an easier time shifting to the left.

      The Reps lose 1/3 of their voters, and basically just become a cult of idiot racist nazis, paleocons, theocrats, MAGA nutjobs.

      Elon party … basically becomes the ‘centrist’/libertarian/ancap/corpo party.

      … and everyone would now have to figure out how to do politics in a much more complex kind of paradigm.

      I… don’t think a roughly even balanced 3 party system has ever existed in US history with any kind of stability, that endured more than one or two Presidential elections, 8 years.

      Two roughly approximate examples:

      The Civil War.

      Teddy Roosevelt going Bull Moose Party.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_eras_of_the_United_States

      But uh yeah, not stable.

      And these numbers are close enough that a 3 party system might not implode quickly… or it also could.

      Especially if the President just gets to remain as functionally a dictator as the last months and years Supreme Court rulings have made him.

      ???