

I am not saying Venezuela will win, I am saying it has invested enough in air defense that the likelihood of the US being able to launch an air campaign without embarassing losses is lower than it appears at least in terms of how the media covers it, and the political consequences of a blundered strike that loses US lives and equipment in a high profile way would be devastating to an already very unliked republican party. Trump and his administration really can’t risk looking any more dumb or incompetent than he does now, a limit is being reached though it is hard to believe one exists, it does.
If Trump and his cronies launches strikes, he will bungle the US militaries’ advantage, this administration is too dysfunctional to do otherwise.







I think the amount of money in the US military industrial complex that has gone into obsessing over how best to bomb Iran is probably incomprehensible. Venezeula too a degree, but not anywhere as much. There was no way Iran could entirely deny US airpower, but so what?
This isn’t just a question of strike capable technology vs. counters it is about landscapes and who knows them best and has invested in their idiosyncracies, and I don’t get the feeling Venezuelans have been wasting all this time thinking the US wouldn’t try some shit like this.
Were the Iran strikes successful? What did they do but confirm to the world the irrationality of US foreign intervention under this administration?
If the US wants to project actual power into Venezuela it will have to get its hands dirty and that is where the wheels will immediately fall off.