China might have a 2 year window coming up where it’s even possible to invade Taiwan. Their military has modernized a lot, but they probably aren’t quite to the point of being able to pull it off. At the same time, they are looking at a demographic cliff from the long term implications of the One Child policy.
It’s possible this window as already closed. That said, authoritarian regimes have started wars before that were terrible ideas.
Eeeeehhh, if you just look at numbers of boats, yes. The US Navy has far, far more experience, though. Drones are also going to change the game in ways we’re only starting to see with the Ukraine War. With that, the answer might be “everyone’s boats are sunk now”.
China probably couldn’t gain air superiority over Taiwan, and without that, an invasion will fail. That will be true even if the US ends up losing more boats.
Cause and effect are a little twisted here. Trump was already undermining NATO during is first term by saying European members should spend more. They didn’t agree at the time, but the Ukraine War proved that Europe really did need a more domestic MIC, and now they are.
Trump wasn’t saying it in the first place because he thought it would help NATO.
You’ve been experiencing a cult of an idea. The Republican party has transformed into a cult of personality with no clear successor.
There are cults of personality that have successfully transformed into a cult of ideas. Mormons and Scientology are examples. However, in each case, the person at the center fostered a clear successor, and that successor was able to make it last in the long run by centering around ideas. Scientology still has that successor around (David Miscavige), but there isn’t really a specific person in charge of the LDS. Not in the same way. Their leadership is now interchangeable, but replacing their ideas is a harder sell.
Trump has no successor, and isn’t interested in fostering one. It’s not JD Vance; nobody respects him, including Trump. It’s not Musk; he made the mistake of trying to be more popular than the boss, and he’s not a natural-born citizen, anyway. It’s not Peter Thiel; he prefers to be the power behind the throne. It’s not any of Trump’s adult children; they’re nothing but spoiled rich kids. It’s not any of the people in his cabinet; they’re all plebes using booze and cocaine to get through the day. It’s not Tucker or Matt Walsh or any of the other right-wing commentators; they’d just eat each other trying to get on top.
Oh, no, they’ll devolve into infighting. There won’t be enough shared ideals and actions to sustain Republicans as a political force. There will be fringe groups that linger on for a while. After almost three centuries, there are still two people left claiming the Shaker tradition; that’s a group that forbids sexual relations even for procreation, so you can see how they’d have trouble gaining new members. But they’re not a religious group that anyone really cares about, either. That’s how MAGA will go eventually.
See also, Knitting Cat Lady, who is a former member of the Children of God cult, then the US Army, and then got a masters in organizational psychology around cults.
Fracture to irreverence where the component pieces eat each other. There is no future for the party after Trump except as various fringe groups claiming to be the “true” party.
Channels aren’t doing that because they want to. YouTube has a lot of rules, some of which are written down. They do it because YouTube has flagged them in the past for demonetization on the issue, and they can’t afford to do that too many times. It can also impact your ability to do livestreams.
It’s on top of a pile of issues that’s making YouTube content creation non-viable for everyone.
That would probably happen as part of a narcissistic collapse. In the most extreme cases, it may trigger suicidal reactions.
That would have some significant medical ethics issues. She nearly died. Do no harm, and that’s regardless of the patient’s political ideology.
A scripture so inconvenient that they had to spend a good chunk of the last 2,000 years contorting an explanation for why the obvious reading must be wrong.
Historically, this is what the NRA was for. They had basic designs setup that were very safe, and they’d offer grants to build them. There’s a local range by me (a private club, not state owned) that was developed that way. It’d be hard to shoot a bullet and have it get out of the range area.
They still kinda do it, but it looks like the industry is sending the funds on their own rather than funneling it through the NRA. Makes sense given the current state of the NRA.
Besides all the points everyone else has mentioned:
“Even if just one rapist changes his mind about raping a child, I will take that.”
Always be skeptical anytime anyone uses an argument of this form. There are tradeoffs for everything, but this phrasing only serves to stop people from weighing them fairly.
Oh, and the above quote comes from the co-sponser of the bill, who is a Democrat. Just in case you thought this was a Republican problem.
A good reminder that the system was already broken before Trump got here.
So they aren’t weeks away from a functioning weapon, and we can recall all the military buildup, right?
Right?
Even that being true, it’s readily apparent that Christians always choose which scriptures to highlight. The fundamentalist ones will say you must take the whole bible or nothing, but that’s not how they behave. Not at all.
Let’s assume the homophobic translation of Romans 1 is the correct one. Is any given Christian talking about that, or are they talking about being kind to the poor, pointing out the hypocrisy of religious leaders, or that the literal, obvious interpretation of “rich men can’t get through the eye of a needle” is the correct one? There’s so many scriptures they could be highlighting, and it’s conspicuous that they choose to make a homophobic one really, really important to them.
MAGA Christians tend to get very angry if you point this out. The usual responses are along the lines of “you only know a few cherry picked scriptures as talking points” or “you atheists would burn alive if you actually read the bible”.
There’s a defensible argument that Paul invented Christianity. Jesus (whoever he was historically) does not appear to have intended to produce a separate religion from Judaism. Paul did that.
It’s not a complete slam dunk, but even if you don’t buy it, it’s still very apparent that Paul was the central figure in shaping what Christianity would become.
Strictly speaking, I don’t think there’s a single scripture that specifically calls out sexual abuse of children. There’s general prohibitions against sex outside of marriage and such, but nothing that applies directly to pedophilia.
You get there by not being a monster. Literal, direct interpretations of the Bible won’t do it.
Like Paul Ryan and Rick Santorum?
The more conservative American Catholics have a theology that’s close to the right-wing, protestant-derived groups around them. Ask Paul or Rick about how their views on evolution jive with the Vatican’s official position, and they’ll start to squirm.
Yeah, this stuff takes time to work out. As long as the side effects aren’t a big deal, they might err on the side of too much.
Covid vaccines were something of an exception because they were motivated and infections were widespread. Lots of chances to get good data. Treatments for other diseases don’t have those advantages.
The HPV vax, for example, was released in 2016 on a three dose schedule. There’s some studies out there that argue two doses would be plenty, but it’s not a consensus, either. That’s after almost a decade.
PrEP is already keeping HIV infection rates pretty low, at least in rich countries where there’s money to do these studies. Not going to be good data on dose schedules for many, many years. Maybe even decades.
It was a talking point that Trump had in his first term. He tends not to let go of bad ideas once they get into his head.
At the time, people didn’t take it seriously. With the Ukraine War, Europe feels like it has to now. But it’s going to be domestic production, not paying US MIC companies like Trump was thinking.