Summary
Renowned climate scientist James Hansen warns that limiting global warming to 2°C is no longer possible due to underestimated climate sensitivity and reduced sun-blocking pollution from ships.
His study suggests warming could hit 2°C by 2045, increasing extreme weather and accelerating ice melt. The research challenges IPCC models, arguing for a higher climate sensitivity estimate.
Hansen calls for carbon taxes, nuclear energy, and geoengineering research.
He warns of an Atlantic ocean current collapse within 20-30 years.
Some good news:
emission rates have plateaued; we are still destroying the planet, but no longer accelerating the rate at which we do it- Solar panels (unsubsidized) are the cheapest method of electricity generation as of 2022
- there is a fundamentally limited amount of fossil fuels, so as long as we don’t turn to Venus 2.0 by 2100 we will deplete most coal and oil and it will be possible for our ancestors to repair the planet over the following centuries.
Yeah I know even this “good news” is bleak, but it’s worth celebrating. There is some hope.
Are those emission rates per capita or absolute?
I saw it originally watching Simon Clark. Reviewing, it looks like the chart shown is actually a great example of a terrible graph; it uses 5 year periods then switches to 1 year periods without clear indication, making it look flatter than it would otherwise. If I adjust for this in a photo editor, emissions have barely slowed. I was misled, sorry for passing that on and thanks for questioning it.
Good on you to have integrity.
But yeah, that’s what I gather, too, whenever I check. Nothing we do has an impact. I’m hoping the huge renewables push in China over the last few years might finally have an effect, but :(
Spoiler Alert: Look around you. Humanity is not going to address this issue. Enjoy your life and if you have kids, let them know their futures and their kid’s futures etc are going to be progressively bleaker.
when i was a kid it was 6°C by 2100, but we have reduced this trajectory to 2.9–3.4°C
may be, but with the feedback loops fully contributing then, the 6°C goal will be delayed a few decades.
and by the way, the political was to stop it at 1.5°C by 2050. nobody ever assumed 6°C an acceptable outcome.
You dont know the future and you dont know what hope is left. Stop being such a defeatist. Either do something positive or go smoke some weed or something…
I choose the second option. Can I borrow $20?
No, but it’s easy to predict given that the trends of the last several decades can show where we’d be in the next and the trend is: global temperatures are fluctuating more violently than the year before and occurrences of extreme weather are increasing. Additionally, nothing has been done during that time to reduce the impacts globally.
It’s scary but, let’s face it: we’re a virus that’s killing our host.
Only the people who sit on their ass all day are the virus. Just be honest and confess your just to lazy to even try and make a difference.
You dont know the future
Nope. But I know humanity and I’ve picked up a history book.
Again, look around you. Look at world politics. We’re moving in the opposite direction of addressing climate change. As long as money is our prime motivator, we will keep acting in direct opposition to the wellbeing of our planet. And, another spoiler alert, money is going to be our motivator for the foreseeable future. Probably forever. We will only address the issue when it seriously affects every man, woman, and child on this planet and by then it will be far too late.
Humanity was always going to destroy this planet on a long enough timeline. It was inevitable. I’m not a defeatist. I’m a realist.
None of this you can actually backup with proof. Its just your gut feeling because you are afraid to get up and take responsibility. You just need a excuse for your inaction.
Reminds me of a scene from The Newsroom
Wow, wasn’t it just last year when they took the 1.5° target off life support and called it?
Now the 2° is dead? Are we killing off 2.5° by summer?
Last year there was hope that the US will at least not get worse.
In before we hit 2C by 2030
We either become mole people, dolphin people, or space people
Maybe oxygen clubs will be the new thing in 50 years to get out of the smog/humidity
Maybe oxygen clubs will be the new thing in 50 years to get out of the smog/humidity
Too late, these exist:
Okay my next big idea is the bodega van. Instead of an ice cream truck for kids it’s a convenience store for adults in the suburbs. It’s 6:47pm and you’re out of milk, tissues, and you forgot to buy broccoli for your dinner. Oh shit it’s the bodega van music. Brb, gotta walk down the block instead of spend 20m in a car, parking lot, store, line, back. As long as the margins are less than doordash it’s worth using.
Cmon please tell me I have one original thought in this wide world.
We had those for decades in the Netherlands. They were literally small supermarkets on wheels. They had a limited assortment on board, but you could order specialty items for delivery next week. They were reasonably popular in the 70’s and 80’s, even in larger cities. Those days, there were fewer supermarkets and they tended to close at 5-6 pm. They also didn’t really do delivery like we have now.
They are still around in a limited way, but usually only for small villages that don’t really have a supermarket.
Here’s a modern example.
6C is dead
That’s what I’m missing - we knew decades ago what happens after we hit 2C…
This, just like the current US collapse, it is just maddening to look at. Watching the bus drive off the cliff without even stepping off the gas and nobody batting an eye… I don’t know how much more I can take.
(not an american btw)
