cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/4881422

Here is the full report: Russia’s Crime–Terror Nexus Criminality as a Tool of Hybrid Warfare in Europe - (pdf)

TL;DR:

At least 110 Russian-linked sabotage, or “kinetic”, incidents have struck Europe since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Of those, 89 were carried out successfully, 21 were foiled, according to a report jointly published by Globsec and the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT).

Most of these sabotage activities occurred in Poland (20) and France (15), but also in Czechia and Slovakia. Sabotage acts were mostly arson or vandalism targeting infrastructure and public order.

The report shows how the Kremlin has built what it called a “state-driven crime-terror nexus”, exploiting criminal actors to advance its hybrid war against Europe.

Across the continent, 131 individuals have been identified as being involved in the incidents, of whom at least 35 had a criminal past and were often recruited through prisons or organised crime groups.

The typical recruit is a man in his 30s, from a post-Soviet state, speaks Russian, and lives in precarious economic conditions. 27% of perpetrators had a prior criminal record or previous involvement in illicit activities, and they are hired through intermediaries of local criminal groups. In one exemplified case, the report says:

“Court records show that the assignment [by Russia] passed through at least five intermediaries before reaching a 21-year-old [perpetrator], heavily indebted, with no knowledge of the wider context.”

In rarer but more sensitive cases, Russia engaged directly with organised crime without intermediaries. For example, the killers of Maxim Kuzminov were criminals reportedly commissioned and paid directly by the Russian embassy in Vienna.

“The long-standing adage that Russian intelligence operatives and Russian criminals are ‘the same people’ still applies – except now, their networks not only smuggle illicit goods but also provide the know-how and infrastructure for Moscow’s kinetic operations against Europe,” the report says.

The report highlights the role of Iran:

Iran has pioneered the use of criminals as proxies for hybrid operations abroad, particularly in Sweden. Russia appears to be adopting a similar model. Cases in Estonia and the United Kingdom already show Moscow leveraging its ties to organised crime for operational purposes, including sabotage and intimidation. It is reasonable to expect further development of this model, particularly given the visible convergence between Russian and Iranian practices

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